Tariffs, Turbulence, and Turning Points: Navigating Economic Uncertainty through Forensic and Insolvency Expertise

Introduction: A World at an Economic Crossroads

The world is navigating an era marked by profound geopolitical shifts. Trade wars and regional conflicts have upended the once-predictable rhythms of global commerce and created significant financial, operational, and regulatory challenges for businesses, including disrupted supply chains, fluctuating tariffs, increased costs, and reduced market access. This complex mix of policy changes and economic volatility threatens long-term instability for businesses across sectors and results in heightened risks of financial distress, fraud, and insolvency.

As forensic accountants and insolvency practitioners, we witness firsthand how these macroeconomic forces ripple through individual companies. In this article, we explore the implications of current global trade policies, the industries most vulnerable to these shocks, and how our multidisciplinary teams step in to support and safeguard businesses and their stakeholders.

The Implications and Impacts Companies Should Be Aware Of

Trade Disruptions and Supply Chain Volatility

Tariffs, once used sparingly as tools of national interest, are now increasingly wielded as instruments of political leverage. When a government imposes a tariff on imports—whether to protect domestic industries, retaliate against another nation, or stimulate local production—it fundamentally alters the dynamics of global trade. Retaliatory tariffs often follow, setting off cycles that disrupt established global supply chains and inflate costs, forcing companies to seek alternative suppliers or absorb these higher costs

Manufacturing and technology sectors that rely on cross-border components are suddenly faced with unexpected duties, causing delays, rising costs, and—often—contractual breaches. Such disruptions may result in an uptick in commercial disputes over unfulfilled agreements, particularly where contracts fail to anticipate tariff-induced cost changes. The likely increase in breach of contract claims, lost profits, and force majeure disputes will require expert financial analysis to quantify these losses and evaluate liability.

Higher Costs and Inflationary Pressures

Tariffs raise the cost of imported goods, which in turn inflates the prices of finished products. These costs are frequently passed along to consumers, reducing purchasing power and dampening demand. For producers, rising input costs—coupled with price-sensitive markets—create margin pressure that can lead to insolvency, especially in industries with thin profit buffers. Sectors which are heavily reliant on global supply chains and imported materials, such consumer electronics, automotive, and textiles, may face margin squeezes. The downstream effects often include wage freezes, layoffs, or plant closures—triggering legal, financial, and reputational risk for affected businesses.

The IMF warns global growth is projected to decline from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.8% in 2025, a marked downgrade from earlier forecasts. Protectionist trade policies, financial market volatility, and increased borrowing costs, particularly in emerging markets with dollar-denominated debt, could push global growth below 2.0% and raise inflation above 5.0%.

Market Volatility and Investment Retraction

Tariff-related tensions increase uncertainty in global markets, investors become wary of long-term bets, and corporate boards delay capital expenditures. The strategic hesitation affects numerous sectors that require stable policy environments for sustained investment. Volatility also affects M&A activity where businesses are less inclined to acquire if future profits are uncertain or if regulatory changes could derail integration. Forensic due diligence becomes even more critical in such a climate, as hidden liabilities related to cross-border tax, compliance, or trade exposure can alter valuations significantly.

Corporate Strain and Insolvency Risk

Companies operating on global supply chains—particularly in manufacturing, shipping, agriculture, and retail—are under immense pressure. Rising input costs, falling demand, and mounting legal disputes all contribute to a rise in financial distress and potential insolvencies. In the current climate, insolvency is less about internal mismanagement and more about external shocks—a critical distinction that alters how stakeholders must respond.

Forensic Accountants and Insolvency Practitioners as Strategic Partners

At Perun Consultants, our role is not confined to being reactive, we also become involved on a proactive and preventative basis. We step in at key stages of the business life cycle, using our combined expertise in forensic accounting, restructuring, and dispute resolution to protect and guide companies through economic turbulence.

Risk Mitigation Through Due Diligence, Forensic Investigations, Reorganisation, and Early Intervention

The first opportunity to minimise exposure to tariff-related risks lies in robust due diligence and risk assessments. Whether a company is entering a new market, acquiring a supplier, or reorganising its value chain, our forensic accountants conduct deep reviews of historical financial data, trade flows, customs compliance, and tax exposure. More importantly, we assess how agile a business is in its current operating model. Can it switch suppliers quickly? Does it have a working capital buffer? Are there hidden dependencies on high-risk jurisdictions?

We specialise in detecting financial irregularities, fraud, and compliance breaches, which tend to increase in times of economic instability. Businesses may become vulnerable increased risks of trade fraud, corruption, and bribery, including misclassification of goods to evade tariffs, fraudulent procurement practices including kickbacks and improper payments to bypass trade restrictions, asset misappropriation via inflated invoices or fake suppliers, or financial statement fraud to conceal losses resulting from trade disruptions. Strengthening internal controls and risk management frameworks, conducting compliance audits and training, and early identification of potential violations are key components to mitigating these risks and ensuring business continuity.

When trade wars push businesses toward financial distress, our insolvency practitioners (IPs) work with leadership teams to restructure operations before crises escalate. This may involve streamlining operations and product lines, divesting non-core assets and conducting pre-packaged sales to quickly offload viable parts of the business, renegotiating trade contracts, or advising on restructuring corporate groups to optimise the business’s position and prospects. IPs may also negotiate with creditors to extended payment terms, reorganise liabilities and improve cash flow, secure emergency funding, or commence administration proceedings to protect businesses while turnaround strategies are implemented. These strategic reorganisations require cross-functional expertise, from financial modelling to legal interface, delivered in an integrated manner, to restore liquidity and keep businesses operational.

Litigation Support, Dispute Resolution, and Valuation of Loss

When businesses are drawn into disputes—whether due to breach of contract, tariff pass-through issues, failed acquisitions, insurance disputes over trade-related losses, or shareholder disputes over financial performance—our forensic experts provide crucial support. When supply chain disruptions lead to contractual failures, we are often appointed as expert witnesses in arbitration and litigation proceedings to quantify economic losses, value damage to businesses or brands, reconstruct trade records, and assess breach or causation.

Through the use of detailed methodologies, we assess financial impacts and prepare evidence-backed claims that are defendable under scrutiny. In the post-tariff era, litigation is not just a legal process—it is a financial investigation. Claims will be scrutinised not only on legal merit, but on the precision of loss calculation, especially where currency fluctuations, export controls, or force majeure defenses are in play.

Exit Planning, Business Disposals, and Insolvency Management

When a business cannot be salvaged in its current form, our IPs guide clients through strategic exits. This might mean selling subsidiaries to unlock value before further erosion, asset tracing to recover hidden or misappropriated funds, filing for formal insolvency in multiple jurisdictions, and liquidating to maximize returns for creditors.

In insolvency scenarios triggered by tariffs, timing and transparency are critical. Our team ensures accurate reporting, transparent communication, and strict compliance with insolvency laws across jurisdictions. We also help businesses plan disposals in a way that minimizes reputational risk and maximizes asset recovery. For multinational companies, this often involves coordinating between legal teams, tax advisors, and regulators in different countries.

Navigating the Future: Compliance, Vigilance, and Strategic Agility

Tariffs and retaliatory trade actions are not merely technical changes—they are structural disruptors. In many cases, companies do not realise the impact until it’s too late. Worse still, some attempts to circumvent tariffs by misclassifying goods or obscuring origin, may trigger trade fraud investigations years down the line. This is where internal compliance systems must evolve. Companies need more than basic customs brokers—they need robust internal controls, whistleblower programs, supplier audits, and regular forensic reviews. A delayed fraud revelation—especially in the face of insolvency—can be reputationally and financially devastating. Tariffs and trade disruptions will continue to shape the global economy where politics meets profit and regulation reshapes revenue, but with the right proactive financial and operational strategies, companies can anticipate, adapt, and even thrive amidst chaos.

At Perun Consultants, we equip clients with clarity in the face of complexity, whether through pre-emptive restructuring, forensic due diligence, litigation support, or insolvency management, we help businesses navigate instability by identifying strategic opportunities. In this era of geopolitical uncertainty, adaptability is key. Companies that act decisively—with expert guidance—will be best positioned to withstand trade wars and capitalise on new opportunities.